SpaceX—Starlink constellation forced 25,000+ collision avoidance maneuvers in H1 2024, growing to 144,000 by H1 2025
SpaceX's Starlink satellite constellation has created significant orbital congestion, with collision avoidance maneuvers increasing dramatically from approximately 25,000 in H1 2024 to 144,000 in H1 2025. The company operates over 7,000 active satellites, representing more than 60% of all active satellites in orbit. ESA and other space agencies have raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of low Earth orbit as SpaceX continues rapid deployment toward a planned 42,000-satellite constellation.
Scoring Impact
| Topic | Direction | Relevance | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orbital Environment | -against | primary | -1.00 |
| Overall incident score = | -0.443 | ||
Score = avg(topic contributions) × significance (high ×1.5) × confidence (0.59)× agency (negligent ×0.5)
Evidence (1 signal)
Starlink satellites made 50,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers in H1 2024, doubling from previous 6 months
SpaceX FCC filing documented Starlink satellites made nearly 50,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024, double the previous half-year. Each Starlink satellite fired thrusters average 14 times to dodge orbiting objects. Constellation grew from 5,100 to 6,200 operational satellites in that period. Expert Hugh Lewis warned maneuvers double every 6 months.